Index at Highest Level in Over a Decade
NEW YORK, March 17, 2017 -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in February to 126.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.6 percent increase in January, and a 0.6 percent increase in December.
"After six consecutive monthly gains, the U.S. LEI is at its highest level in over a decade. Widespread gains across a majority of the leading indicators points to an improving economic outlook for 2017, although GDP growth is likely to remain moderate," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "Only housing permits contributed negatively to the LEI in February, reversing gains over the previous two months."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.3 percent in February to 114.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in January, and a 0.4 percent increase in December.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in February to 123.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in January, and a 0.3 percent increase in December.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For full press release and technical notes:
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
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2016
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2017
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6-month
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Dec
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Jan
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Feb
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Aug to Feb
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Leading Index
|
124.7
|
125.5
|
126.2
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p
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Percent Change
|
0.6
|
r
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
p
|
2.3
| ||
Diffusion
|
85.0
|
75.0
|
90.0
|
100.0
| ||||
Coincident Index
|
114.5
|
r
|
114.6
|
r
|
114.9
|
p
| ||
Percent Change
|
0.4
|
r
|
0.1
|
0.3
|
p
|
1.1
| ||
Diffusion
|
100.0
|
50.0
|
100.0
|
100.0
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Lagging Index
|
123.1
|
r
|
123.3
|
r
|
123.5
|
p
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Percent Change
|
0.3
|
r
|
0.2
|
r
|
0.2
|
p
|
1.1
| |
Diffusion
|
85.7
|
50.0
|
35.7
|
57.1
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p Preliminary r Revised
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Indexes equal 100 in 2010
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Source: The Conference Board
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SOURCE The Conference Board
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